Thursday, May 08, 2008

History.

Yes, history. Those that do not know it are bound to repeat it. Those that do know it....well, we call them Historians.

So several of you have written the ole Rumbear and inquired as to what brand I have been drinking to endorse Hillary for President. Actually, I did not endorse her for President; I endorsed her as the Democrat Candidate. This was, of course in response to the cry for her to drop out. Slight difference there, dear readers. Rest assured all is well and I shall continue to imbibe in only the finest of swill.

Having cleared that up, perhaps a little history will give you some perspective as to the Rumbear's position re: "dropping out".

First let's set the stage......Here in the present HRH Hillary is a mere 150 or so delegates behind ObamalamaDingDong. Indeed the totals shown you by the MSM that appear to be near the required number of 2025 INCLUDES the super delegates that have said they will vote for whomever. In reality each is 400 to 500 delegates away from the threshold. This is important because Super delegates do not have to vote for whom they are pledged. That's why they are SUPER! HRH Hillary actually has a lead in the overall popular vote by 100,000 or so. (Ed Note: Remember how important that was to AlGore?!) The fact is neither can secure the nomination outright prior to the convention. Nevertheless we have the powers that be in the Party calling for her to drop out. Quick side bar here, imagine if an angry white male was in the lead by 150 votes over Obamalama or HRH Hillary....do you think for a minute there would be any call for the one behind to drop out? First woman or first black to get this close and you really think they would be asked to drop out? The cries of racism and being anti feminist would echo from the valleys.

But, I digress.

So should HRH Hillary drop out? History tells us the answer. No, if you like to watch the Dems melt down.

Sign me up!

Let us look at the 1980 convention. That great bastion of American overindulgence, Ted Kennedy was running for President. Kennedy came into the Democratic convention at Madison Square Garden in New York City with 1,225 delegates to Carter's 1,981 and 122 uncommitted. 756 delegates BEHIND! No cries for him to drop out. Politics ain't beanbag. Sean Miller at National Journal points out:

Kennedy's only chance to wrest the nomination from Carter, who had enough delegates to win, was to pass an "open rule" motion.Joe Trippi was on the convention floor the evening of Aug. 11, 1980, marshalling the Kennedy delegations from Texas and Utah. He remembers the deciding vote as "the robot rule vote," which came after an hour-long debate that played out in front of a prime time television audience. The debate was over whether delegates should have to vote for the candidate they'd been pledged for, or have an "open" vote during which they could pick Kennedy or Carter, Trippi recalled in an interview. The back story being that the economic and international political situation had deteriorated between the time most people voted and the time of the convention, opening the door to Kennedy, who was billed as a change candidate. (Ed Note: Where have we heard that?!) "It went all the way down to the wire," said Trippi, who was an adviser to Edwards' 2008 campaign.In 1980, after the convention floor debate, Kennedy picked up support from most of the uncommitted delegates, bringing his vote total to 1,390 -- still shy of the majority needed to pass the motion. Carter won the rule vote and Kennedy quickly conceded. Another 300 delegates would have been enough for Kennedy to pass the motion and throw that convention "wide open," Trippi said.

Politics ain't beanbag. HRH Hillary is running for President of the U S A. It will come down to those Super delegates. Indeed.

There are 795 super-delegates to the Democratic National Convention, said Daniel Shea, a professor of political science at Allegheny College in Pennsylvania. "They're the key to this whole process." Super-delegates include governors, members of a state's congressional delegation and former officeholders. "Super-delegates tend to be more the establishment wing of the party -- not exactly the Obama group," he said. "They're a crucial piece of the brokered convention. DNC rules stipulate they don't have to vote for the candidate, even the one they've endorsed."

So history shows that candidates have come in to conventions with far less support and played the odds. Makes for a fun, chaotic time. I'm all about that, so long as it's the Democrats.

Operation Chaos...sign up here!

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