Hillary 08!

Okay, several of you have asked "Rumbear how is Hillary thinking she can win the nomination when she keeps losing primaries?" Gather round kids, let me tell you a story about the Democratic Party and SUPER delegates.

Way back in 1968 the rules for candidate selection by the Democrats was tinkered with. Back then the left wing of the party led by George McGovern had control and felt that the peoples should have a bigger voice. You have to understand that the left wing was at a peak having selected their candidate by a narrow margin they were looking to solidify their place at the table. So they changed the rules of selection to allow for better representation at the convention based upon the actual votes cast in the state primaries. They had dominated the primaries and wanted to have their base represented. Sounds fair eh? It was, unless you are a party hack or ex-politician looking to keep some control of the party. The beating McGovern took in the general election provided a basis for the old politicos to grumble around for some change of the rules. They did not want the left wing nutroots (i.e. grassroots) to maintain control of the party and select another loser like McGovern. (not to mention Jimmah!)

So they changed the rules.

In 1980 the "Superdelegate" was born. (The formal designation (in Rule 9.A) is "unpledged party leader and elected official delegates") These were party hacks that were anointed/appointed to attend the convention and use their age and wisdom to vote for a candidate. The Superdelegates are selected by the CNC. The DNC is controlled by the party leader to last run for election or if you are a ner do well like Kerry or Gore, the Clinton's take over. So the Clinton's control of the DNC has allowed them to have a hand in the selection of the Superdelegates.

Yeah, so what Rumbear? Stay with me....

By formula, the Superdelegates number approximately 20% of the overall delegates at the convention. In 2008 there will be approximately 800 of them. A Democrat candidate needs around 2000 votes to be the nominee. Thus if you can run a campaign and come to the convention with 1300 or 1400 delegates committed to you the Superdelegates come in to play. They could put you over the top. Viola! You are the candidate!

A quick check over at Real Clear Politics show the current delegate count. Hillary is at 1038 without the Superdelgates. Obamalama is at 1193. However when you add in the Superdelegates that have said they are "committed" to vote for either of them we get Hillary 1279 and Obamalama at 1377. Pretty close eh!? And there are about 400 not yet committed. (But, who appointed them?;-)

So over the near term you will begin to hear more and more about the courting of Superdelegates. The Clinton's have hired hatchet man Harold Ickes to run their program. He will be calling on the Superdelegates to learn their needs...room at the convention, private jet, limo, student loans, no worries mon. Actually, the Clinton's are reported using private investigators to do background checks on the Superdelegates, cause..that's how they work. Your campaign donations at work!

This is how Walter Mondale became the nominee in 1984. He was running behind Gary Hart when those fotos on "Monkey Business" surfaced. (Hmmmwhere did they come from?!) Still behind he courted the Superdelegates and took the nomination at the convention.

Hillary can too....